|
Democrats are here, but so is the N-deal
Conventional wisdom is often much
different from reality. It is not ipso facto that the Democratic
showing in the US Congressional elections will translate into death
of Indo-US nuclear deal. American politics does not change so
heavily as the South Asian scene after any elections. Domestic
politics of the United States impinges little on many external
affairs issues, and certainly nothing drastic happens overnight.
The
strong bipartisan support for improving ties with India may actually
encourage the Republicans and Democrats to act together on the
nuclear legislation in the lame duck session of the Congress (the
outgoing one) that convenes next Monday even though it is well
recognised in India that there is heavy work load on the final
session of the Congress.
There are pending many issues. A floor vote in the full Senate, a
reconciliation of the Senate version of the Bill with the one
already passed by the House in a conference committee, and a second
vote in both Houses on the modified legislation.
Failure to approve the Bill in the lame duck session will mean it
has to be taken back to the new Congressional Committees. Even if
the outgoing Congress falters on the time line in the next few days,
because of process related issues, any progress achieved now should
help consolidate the bipartisan support in favour of the nuclear
deal and ensure its early passage in the new Congress that will take
charge in January 2007.
Having waited for over three decades for the modification of the
international nuclear regime in favour of India, it is clear in
India that some things can’t really be rushed. India is also aware
that China’s nuclear cooperation agreement with the US took nearly a
decade and a half to get Congressional approval.
India has no reason to be wary of a resurgent Democratic Party. It
is true that the Democrats’ good showing is a significant turn in
the US domestic politics; while it could delay or complicate the
implementation of the nuclear deal, there is no reason to believe
that Democrats want to kill either the deal or the burgeoning
political relationship with India.
The
pre-election politicking had certainly prevented the nuclear
legislation from being voted upon on the Senate floor last month. At
that time, both the Republican and Democratic leaderships had
assured India that the bill will indeed be taken up for a vote in
the lame duck session of the current Congress.
Indians knew well that getting strong support from the Democrats was
critical from a longer term perspective on civilian nuclear
cooperation with the United States.
A large section of the Democrats had voted for nuclear cooperation
with India in the House International Relations Committee and the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee earlier this year. Nearly 80 per
cent of the full House of Representatives voted for the legislation.
Although the Democrats tend to be more concerned about the
non-proliferation agenda, their political leadership in the last few
weeks has been sending consistent signals that the deal will not be
in danger if they gain control of either or both Houses.
The Democrats had hoped, and correctly, that the unpopularity of
President George W Bush, the anger at the failing war in Iraq, and
the recent scandals involving Republican Congressmen, have “nationalised”
the mid term elections that normally tend to be dominated by local
politics.
The
Republicans, in contrast, had expected that the traditional
advantages of incumbency in the U.S. Congress, and a structural
majority in favour of the Republican Party in evidence since the
early 1990s, might help fend off the Democratic challenge. It didn’t
happen. But for those keenly watching the fate of N-deal, it seems
on track.
8 November 2006
|
Read Also