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India goes to Rs 10,000 crore
poll but will it get a Sikh PM again?
WSN Bureau
 NEW DELHI: India
will go to elections from April 16 to May 13 to elect a new
government, and the ruling United Progressive Alliance led by
Congress will fight to make a Sikh, Manmohan Singh, the Prime
Minister for the second consecutive time. The five-phased election
that will see
Punjab electorate voting for 13 of the Lok Sabha's 545 seats in two
phases on May 7 and 13 will be the costliest election exercise in
human history.
India
is expected to spend Rs 10,000 crore on the elections, far more than
the Rs 8,000 crore on the US election that saw Barack Obama becoming
President of the United States.
It is still not
clear whether Manmohan Singh will himself contest the election to
Lok Sabha, the Lower House. He is a member of the Rajya Sabha, the
House whose members are elected by MLAs and MPs, not directly by the
broadspectrum of electorate.
Billed as the
biggest carnival of democracy in the world, Indian elections signify
irony. A mammoth electorate marching to the polling booths to elect
a government, but it is also a mammoth exercise in negation. Large
sections of the aware electorate is simply too frustrated with
politicians or too apathetic to affairs of the state, and so it does
not vote. Votes are often purchased outright. Poll violence is de
rigueur and every single ill possible is part of the show.
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Never had Punjab seen 2-phased poll
CHANDIGARH: For the first time, the Lok Sabha elections in
Punjab would be held in two phases, on May 7 and 13, with nine
of the 13 constituencies being declared sensitive. It is a clear
recognition of the increasing criminalisation of politics and
the induction of violence in it. Even during the days of
militancy, the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in 1992 were
held simultaneously in a single phase, as were the 1985 state
Assembly polls.
Instead of taking the cue and condemning the undue
politicization of police, CM Parkash Singh Badal claimed the
force was “de-politicized” and would ensure impartial and
peaceful elections. Opposition Congress has been demanding
para-military forces. Such claims and counter claims are
routine. Readers will remember that Badal had demanded central
forces even during the elections to the SGPC in 2002.
Typical of his
arrogance and undemocratic behaviour, Deputy Chief Minister
Sukhbir Singh Badal was quick to announce that the announcement
of poll dates had sounded the “death knell of the Congress not
only in
Punjab but in the whole of the country”. He neither has the
intellect nor the sagacity to understand what does the
death-knell of an entire opposition mean for the notion of
democracy, but then such is the stuff of which the Kaka variety
is made of these days.
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With 71.4 crore
(714 million) strong electorate, (The US has the second-biggest
electorate, 210 million voters), 24 per cent of Indian voters - 17
crore (170 million) - are between the ages of 18 and 35. That is
more than the populations of 161 countries in the world. This will
also be the first election that reflects India’s urbanization over
the last three decades. The country is torn between neo-liberal
ruling policies and strong movement from the grassroots against the
policies that are enabling the politicians to claim great
development stride as more and more people are being pushed to the
margins and the inequalities in wealth and access to resources is
increasing.
There is a lot of
hype about these being elections for the youth. And both Congress
and the BJP as principal opposition parties are claiming to be the
parties of the youth, even though it is clear in this highly divided
and sub-divided country that there is no monolith called the youth
vote.
The people, old and
young, are divided along regional, ideological, religious and caste
lines and there is no Obama like figure who can exercise the kind of
pull that makes the votes go en block. The idea of a homogenous
youth is a myth.
The vote difference
between the two parties in the last two elections has been so little
that technically any issue, or any block of voters (young, women,
dalit, Muslim, minorities, higher caste) can swing the result. The
difference between Congress and BJP was only four per cent in 2004
and 0.4 per cent in 1998.
India is going to
this election at a time when one generation of leaders has passed
away, but it will nevertheless get a PM from among the older
generation only.
VP Singh, Harkishan
Singh Surjeet and Chandra Shekhar are no more, while Atal Bihari
Vajpayee and Jyoti Basu will be staying away from the action on
account of old age. Manmohan Singh wants the job again; Sonia has
said she will try to get it for him, but Hindutva mascot L K Advani
is rather over-keen to snatch it for himself. There is much talk
that Sonia wants to keep the seat warm for her son Rahul Gandhi
while talk about the dark horse in Rahul's sister Priyanka Gandhi
punctuates the debate off and on.
But this will also
be an election that will be watched closely from the Dalit
perspective. There is little serious debate in the media because the
principal interlocutors of the debate are not interested in even the
subject coming up for discussion. But that has never mattered to the
Dalit constituency. Mayawati is a threat to all, even to those who
are vying to befriend her. She has her flaws, and they are magnified
many times over. As for others who dream, there is no end to the
Lalus and the Paswans, the Pawars and the Pranabs.
Somethings have
changed.
Urban India will
have a higher say compared to 2004 and will be wooed by parties
perhaps for the first time. Bangalore will elect four members to the
15th Lok Sabha compared to three in the 14th in 2004. Thane district
in suburban Mumbai will elect three compared to one in 2004 and
Hyberabad and suburbs will elect four instead of two.
No wonder this
election will see not just slogans about being a friend of the
farmers or a messiah of the Dalits but also of interest rates on
home loans.
Largely, you can
expect development issues resonating in urban areas and identity
politics to get a renewed and different character.
For both the BJP
and the Congress, stitching up the right alliances will be crucial.
Good alliances in a couple of big states can swing the elections for
either party.
4 March 2009
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