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Too many Jokers In The Pack
Parmeet Pal Singh
 The
biggest political gamble is on in
India,
and the number of jokers in the pack is increasing. At last count as
this WSN edition was going to the press, the probably Prime
Ministerial candidates numbered around 15, and some eight of them
stand a feasible chance. But then this country has made Deve Gowda
and Gujral also premiers. So whose name is not feasible?
For many wedded
to the idea of a unitary centre, this is not good news as they see
political instability built into such a scenario. No party's latest
calculations are matching its expectations a few weeks back. The
Congress expected setbacks in Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand and
firmly believed it would make major gains in Kerala and Orissa and
minor gains in Uttar Pradesh besides holding on to its previous
score in Maharashtra. Now, Andhra may see the expected reverses but
no one is ready to bet on Kerala, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh. From
organisational apathy to the presence of new regional parties and
small-time spoilers have gatecrashed into a very snob party.
The BJP game
plan in Maharashtra has gone kapoot though in eastern Uttar Pradesh
it will do better than it even expected itself. Chhattisgarh and
Orissa are advantage BJP. The race is no more on who will form the
government, the first lap will be about emerging as the single
largest party.
 With
calculations going awry, the regional parties are getting bolder by
the day. The smaller constituents of the UPA or NDA coalitions are
making disparate noises. Lalu is threatening Congress and saying
Manmohan Singh's prime ministerial candidature is not finalised.
Sharad Pawar has said UPA people will sit down after the polls and
decide about who is the contender for the hot seat. And now Pranab
Mukerjee has said Lalu may not even be a minister at the Centre. The
Bihar strongman haas hit back by saying he was not a minister
courtesy Congress.
On the NDA side,
Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar
came up with an ambiguous statement: “Today, I am with the NDA, who
knows what will happen tomorrow?”
Jokers in the
pack, as we said, are increasing. "Ram Vilas Paswan kyon nahi ho
sakta PM?" This was paswan himself asking Shekhar Gupta on Walk The
Talk TV program.
This is the time
for things to get volatile, and they have gotten so. Both main
parties, the Congress and the BJP, are using all their leadership
skills to handle such uneven political situations, but the Akali Dal
has emrged as one party which is not pushing any Punjab agenda in
lieu of its support to Advani as PM.
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Clearly, the two big ones are forced to fight known adversaries
as well as unknown, undefined ones. The strengths and weaknesses
of the known adversaries can be measured with some level of
accuracy, but gauging the impact of unknown adversaries is
almost impossible |
The dramatic
development that saw journalist Jarnail Singh aim a shoe at Home
Minister P. Chidambaram in protest against the clean chit given by
the Central Bureau of Investigation to Jagdish Tytler in the 1984
anti-Sikh riots case could have affected poll arithmetic but
Congress' decision to withdraw the candidature of the duo has
stemmed the Sikh voter anger somewhat. The presence of Amarinder
Singh and the way he is running the Punjab Congress, inducting so
many taksali Akalis, the entire mindscape map of the Congress in
Punjab
has changed.
In the case of
the BJP, the developing political climate marked by the growing
public resentment against the governance in Karnataka, which is seen
as promoting aggressive Hindutva, raised questions about the
projection that the party would maintain its winning streak in the
State.
The withdrawal
of the RJD, the LJP and the S.P. in
Bihar,
Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand from the UPA to form a fourth front
added yet another confusing dimension to this process. These States
account for 134 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (80 in Uttar
Pradesh, 40 in Bihar and 14 in Jharkhand). Any gains or losses in
this belt will be crucial for the Congress and the BJP. The effort
of the fourth front was obviously to become the most dominant player
in the region and thus call the shots when the Congress or any other
secular formation emerged with sufficient numbers to form the
government at the Centre.
Given this
background, the number of States that can throw up surprise results
has grown considerably. By all accounts, the most crucial battles
will be those fought in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh,
Rajasthan, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Punjab. These States
together have 301 seats.
At the same
time, the trends especially in Andhra Pradesh,
West Bengal,
Tamil Nadu and Kerala are equally important for the Third Front. A
good performance by the Third Front in these States will basically
be at the cost of the Congress and its allies. A positive result for
the Third Front in the 143 seats in these States will naturally make
it more appealing to the fourth front.
It is important
for the Congress to hold on to its tally in Andhra Pradesh (29 out
of 42) and make dramatic gains in West Bengal, Kerala and Punjab
where it won six out of 42, none out of 20 and two out of 13
respectively in the last elections. The NDA will have to strive hard
for good results in Bihar (where it won 11 out of 40) and Uttar
Pradesh (10 out of 80) and maintain its position in Rajasthan (21
out of 25). According to a senior BJP leader, the NDA will have to
double its seats in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in order to be anywhere
in the reckoning for power. How elese can it hope to attract the
AIADMK or the BJD.
Clearly, the two
big ones are forced to fight known adversaries as well as unknown,
undefined ones. The strengths and weaknesses of the known
adversaries can be measured with some level of accuracy, but gauging
the impact of unknown adversaries is almost impossible.
22
April 2009
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