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Cong V/s BJP: The Story lies in
the detail
WSN Network
 New
Delhi: Election results never cease to surprise.
Otherwise, how does
one explain that in a decade between two Lok Sabha elections —in
1999 and 2009 — the Congress’s vote share increased by just 0.5 per
cent to 28.6 per cent but its tally went up by 91 seats to 205 this
time? A decade ago, the BJP had sprung a similar surprise when it
got a smaller percentage of votes (23.75 per cent) than the Congress
(28.30) but emerged as the largest party with 182 seats.
In this election,
the BJP got 18.82 per cent of over 42 crore votes but fetched only
116 seats.
Perhaps the right
combination with right issues works.
An analysis of
Election Commission data revealed that three states made a huge
difference for the Congress this time -Uttar Pradesh,
Bihar and Rajasthan.
UP gave the
Congress 21 seats with a 6 per cent increase in vote share -- the
highest for the party among major states. In 2004, the party had 12
MPs from UP with a vote share of 12 per cent.
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Half per cent increase in vote share translates into 91 extra
seats in Lok Sabha |
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Even though the
cr4edit for Congress' good showing in UP is being given to Rahul
Gandhi, in the next door Bihar, the Congress got only two of the 40
Lok Sabha seats but its vote share increased from 4 per cent in 2004
to 10 per cent this time.
Huge gains for the
Congress in these two states hurt its allies, the Samajwadi Party
(SP) in UP and RJD in Bihar the most because of the division of
votes.
Although the SP
lost only 3 per cent votes this time, its number fell by 12 seats.
If the SP had contested in an alliance with the Congress, it would
have won a large number of seats.
In Bihar, if the
Congress, RJD and Lok Janshakti Party had contested as an
alliance,the combine would have got 37 per cent votes, 1 per cent
less than the JD(U)-BJP alliance, which won 32 seats.
Although the
Congress was expected to do well in Rajasthan, a gain of 16 seats is
not reflected in a meagre increase in vote share of close to 6 per
cent.
20 May 2009
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