|
Poll Talk: Indian politics again
hit by Third Front
Gian Inder Singh
 NEW
DELHI: After much poll talk and just days before India goes to
elections, both, the ruling Congress as well as the Opposition BJP,
spent considerable time rubbishing a ragtag and loose coalition of a
few small parties that call themselves together the Third Front.
Both Congress and BJP agreed that it was not worth talking about,
and both have not been able to stop talking about it.
No one launched
the Third Front; it launched itself in
Bangalore last
week. And ironically even as the development was seen as triggered
by the rift between Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Orissa and the BJP, the
BJD did not come anywhere close to backing it.
Privately, both
Congress and BJP admitted they were forced to modify their strategy.
And Congress knows too well that the Front could play a key role in
government formation. Largely led by the Left, it has the support of
a former Prime Minister.
Congressmen
called it a "phantom", and BJP did not accord much importance to it.
But the Third Front phantom will stick around for some time.
Afterall, a bunch like this did get to rule in 1977, 1989 and 1996.
The BJP and
Congress will of course exercise restraint in their attacks on the
Front constituents. Nationalist Congress Party supremo Sharad Pawar
conceded that the "UPA cannot ignore the Third Front."
But many eyes
remain on the two queens that the Front is wooing, and they do not
like each other. One from the north and the other from the south,
both of unpredictable temperament, are themselves leading the race
for prime ministership in the fledgling Third Front. BSP chief
Mayawati has already made her intentions clear, and AIADMK chief J.
Jayalalithaa has asked everyone to wait till election results are
announced.
Uttar Pradesh
sends 80 MPs, the most among all states, to the Lok Sabha. If
Mayawati can win half the seats there — which she has a fair chance
of doing — she can single-handedly increase the Third Front’s seat
tally like no other leader among them can. The AIADMK’s bastions —
Tamil Nadu and Puducherry — add up to only 40 seats. Plus, they have
a history of extreme voting swings. If the AIADMK does well,
Jayalalithaa’s contribution to the Third Front’s tally will also be
substantial.
But the fact
remains that the Third Front talk may seem exaggerated at the moment
but the idea will solidify more only after the maths is known. If
the mandate is suitably fractured, a Third Front will be negotiated
and dozens of potential prime ministers will start competing in an
alternative Indian Premier League.
In 1996, when
the Third Front previously came to office, the United Front was put
in shape as a post-election contrivance. No Third Front can be a
presold commodity.
The Third Front
is easy enough to describe: any coalition that is not led by the
Congress or the BJP. However, there is no Third Front template. In
the context of 2009, even cited precedents may turn out to be
irrelevant. Yet, it would be equally futile to be completely
dismissive of the Third Front. Its adherents place their wisdom in
compelling electoral arithmetic.
18 March 2009
|
Read Also